国海证券：数据中心强化电力基建需求 出海仍是企业长期增长驱动力

Core Viewpoint - Global investment in power grid infrastructure is expected to grow over the next decade, with varying supply and demand dynamics across different regions [2][3] Regional Perspective - China: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the power supply and demand are expected to become more balanced, leading to resilient grid investment [2] - United States: From 2025 to 2029, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for utility capital expenditures is projected to be 4.6%, with data centers being a significant contributor to power infrastructure investment due to supply bottlenecks [2] - Other Regions: Electricity consumption growth in Europe is expected to rise, while demand in emerging economies remains strong [2] Technical Perspective - The penetration rate of renewable energy continues to increase, with various grid technologies like STATCOM and flexible direct current starting to see wider adoption [2] - Green hydrogen and green alcohol are identified as long-term technological trends for deep decarbonization, with demand beginning to emerge under policy catalysts [2] Data Center Insights - Data centers are a key driver of power infrastructure investment globally, particularly in the U.S. [2] - The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts an additional load of 52 GW from data centers by 2030 compared to 2024, with some estimates reaching up to 109 GW [2] Supply Bottlenecks - The delivery cycle for power transformers remains high, currently exceeding 100 weeks [2] - Major companies are scheduling gas turbine production until 2028, driven by equipment replacement cycles, rapid expansion of AI data centers, and energy transition [2] Investment Recommendations - Power infrastructure investment remains robust, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the power equipment industry [4] - Focus on North American power equipment shortages, with key stocks including Siyi Electric (002028.SZ) and TBEA (600089.SH) [4] - Attention to new power supply technologies for data centers, with relevant stocks including Sifang Co. (601126.SH) and China XD Electric (601179.SH) [4] Power Trading Opportunities - Companies like Guoneng Rixin (301162.SZ) and Langxin Group (300682.SZ) are highlighted for their potential in the market-oriented transformation of the power industry and AI applications [5] UHV Investment - Investment in ultra-high voltage (UHV) grid infrastructure is expected to grow steadily, unaffected by external geopolitical risks, making it suitable for strategic allocation [5]