“私募魔女”李蓓再次高喊地产“十年一遇大拐点” 业内怎么看？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate sector may present a "once-in-a-decade opportunity" within the next six months due to supply-side clearing and cyclical recovery factors [1][2] - The number of active companies in the land market has dwindled to single digits, indicating a significant supply-side clearing [1] - Although the total real estate volume may not return to peak levels, it is expected to stabilize at a long-term equilibrium level of 1 billion square meters [1] Group 2 - The adjustment period for the real estate sector has reached the median duration of global real estate bubble bursts, with various indicators showing adjustments that slightly exceed average levels [1] - There has been a marginal improvement in the industry's fundamentals, such as rental yields aligning with marginal financing costs and a decline in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale since December [1] - The potential for a turning point in the real estate market could be accelerated by significant policy changes [1] Group 3 - The real estate sector has seen a continuous decline in various metrics over the past year, with new residential sales expected to drop over 50% compared to the peak in 2021 [3] - The average sales price of new residential properties in 2025 is projected to be 10,005 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4% [6] - Historical data suggests that the current adjustment in real estate prices has been substantial, with expectations that the adjustment cycle may conclude by 2026 [6] Group 4 - The demand for housing is shifting from merely having a home to seeking quality living conditions, indicating a structural change in demand [7] - There is optimism regarding the incremental space in the industry, with a significant urbanization rate gap compared to developed economies, suggesting ongoing housing demand as new residents move to cities [7] - The expectation for new policies to support the real estate sector is strong, with predictions for potential policy announcements in early 2026 [8][9]