硫酸镍：多空拉锯，震荡蓄势！

Core Viewpoint - Nickel sulfate prices have slightly declined due to a balance disruption between bullish and bearish market forces, with current prices reported at 32,000-33,600 yuan per ton, averaging 32,800 yuan per ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [1] Supply and Demand Status - The nickel sulfate market is expected to face a supply tightness and demand differentiation, with a projected global supply-demand gap of 180,000 tons by January 2026 [1] - Supply constraints are driven by tightening resource policies in Indonesia and the Philippines, leading to reduced nickel intermediate supply, while domestic smelting is hindered by high raw material costs [1] - Demand is showing clear differentiation, with strong support from high-nickel batteries for electric vehicles and military alloys, while traditional sectors like electroplating and stainless steel are underperforming due to macroeconomic pressures [1] Industry Chain Status - The industry chain is undergoing global restructuring, with Indonesia's dominant position increasing due to reduced nickel ore quotas and local processing policies raising global raw material costs [2] - Midstream hydrometallurgical processes are becoming mainstream, with leading companies leveraging cost advantages for greater profit margins, while high-nickel production transitioning to nickel sulfate is an important supplementary path [2] - Downstream demand is shifting towards high-value sectors such as new energy and military applications, with the core driving force being the mass production of high-nickel ternary batteries and the growing demand for high-end nickel materials [2] Market Outlook - Short-term nickel sulfate prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 32,000-34,000 yuan per ton, influenced by the implementation of Indonesian policies, seasonal purchasing patterns, and market sentiment [2] - In the medium to long term, the growth in electric vehicle sales and the rigid demand for high-end manufacturing will likely sustain the supply-demand gap, maintaining the industry's growth logic [2] - Companies with resource security, hydrometallurgical technology, and integrated layouts are expected to dominate the market, with ongoing attention needed on Indonesian policy execution, electric vehicle sales, and advancements in high-nickel production capacity [2]