去年宏观杠杆率被动升破300%，居民去杠杆幅度逐季加大

Core Viewpoint - The macro leverage ratio in China is projected to rise to 302.4% by the end of 2025, driven by a decline in nominal GDP growth and a significant reduction in household debt growth, particularly in mortgage and consumer loans [2][3] Macro Leverage Ratio - The macro leverage ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points in Q4 2025, reaching 302.4%, with an annual increase of 11.7 percentage points, marking a significant rise compared to previous years [3] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to slow to 4.0% in 2025, the lowest since the reform and opening up period, leading to a passive increase in the macro leverage ratio [3] Household Debt and Consumer Loans - Household debt growth is at a historical low of 0.5%, with mortgage growth expected to decline by 1.5%, marking 11 consecutive quarters of negative growth [5][6] - Consumer loan growth has plummeted to 0.2%, the lowest on record, due to sluggish income growth among residents [7] Sectoral Analysis - The household leverage ratio decreased by 2.0 percentage points, while non-financial corporate leverage increased by 6.2 percentage points, and government leverage rose by 7.6 percentage points [4] - The report indicates a trend of deleveraging in the household sector, while corporate debt levels continue to rise [4] Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The government sector is expected to continue increasing leverage to invest in human capital, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and improving the efficiency of debt usage [8][9] - Recommendations include increasing fiscal spending in social sectors such as education and healthcare, and providing interest subsidies on household loans to stimulate consumption [10]