Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-27 13:06Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry and packaging sectors have shown strong performance, with software stocks generally outperforming hardware stocks [2][19] - The ASP (Average Selling Price) for mature processes is expected to improve due to strong downstream replenishment demand, with forecasts indicating a utilization rate (UTR) of over 75% for Taiwanese manufacturers [19][22] Semiconductor Performance - Foundry/packaging stocks increased by 2.1% yesterday, with a 5.2% rise over the past five days and a 124.4% increase over the last 180 days [3][20] - Semiconductor equipment stocks rose by 1.2% yesterday, with a 148.3% increase over the last 180 days [3][20] - Software large-cap stocks increased by 1.1% yesterday, but have seen a decline of 11.1% over the last 60 days [3][20] NAND Market Outlook - Bernstein predicts a significant upward cycle for NAND driven by AI demand and limited supply growth, with SanDisk expected to have substantial upside potential [22] - For FQ2'26, SanDisk's EPS is projected at $3.79, exceeding street expectations of $3.45, with a more optimistic FQ3'26 EPS forecast of $6.52 based on a 22% QoQ ASP increase [22] - JP Morgan anticipates a substantial increase in NAND TAM growth from a long-term average of 10% to over 30% in the next three years, primarily driven by AI-related eSSD demand [23] Taiwanese Foundries - Citigroup reports that VIS and UMC have outperformed the market by 48% and 22% respectively year-to-date, with UTR expected to rise to 75%+ this year [19][20] - UMC's 28/22nm utilization rate remains above 90%, with overall UTR improving from 60-70% to 75-80%, leading to upward adjustments in profitability forecasts for 2026/27 [19][20] Key Company Earnings Projections - SanDisk's base case for F3Q (March) ASP is projected to increase by 22% QoQ, corresponding to an EPS of $6.52, significantly higher than the expected $4.62 [19][22] - In a bullish scenario, if F3Q ASP increases by 40%, EPS could reach $9.06, with FY27 EPS potentially at $67.5 [19][22]