GEV Q4 Earnings on the Deck: How to Approach the Stock Now?

Core Insights - GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28, with earnings expected at $3.03 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 75.14%, while revenues are estimated at $10.04 billion, indicating a decline of 4.91% from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GEV's earnings per share (EPS) for the current quarter is $3.03, with a high estimate of $3.59 and a low estimate of $1.86 [2]. - The company has a history of earnings surprises, having beaten estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 21.29% [3][4]. - GEV's Earnings ESP is currently at 0.00%, indicating no expected earnings beat for the upcoming report [5]. Operational Insights - GEV anticipates a strong fourth quarter characterized by higher adjusted EBITDA, improved margins, and positive free cash flow, despite a slight decline in revenues due to gas turbine delivery timing and ongoing weakness in onshore wind [6][9]. - The company has opened a new Repair Service Center in Argentina to enhance service efficiency and support recurring revenues [11]. - GEV launched PlanOS, an advanced utility planning software, which is expected to diversify revenue streams and improve financial performance [12]. Market Position - GEV's stock has returned 14.1% over the past three months, outperforming the industry, which has seen a decline of 2% [14]. - The company is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis [16]. - GEV's trailing 12-month return on equity stands at 17.07%, significantly higher than the industry average of 6.39% [18]. Growth Outlook - GEV has raised its long-term financial expectations, forecasting revenues of approximately $52 billion by 2028, driven by a growing backlog of orders and strong demand for energy equipment and services [20]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for reliable electricity and grid infrastructure, particularly due to the rise of AI and data centers [19][22]. Challenges - GEV faces challenges from global supply-chain disruptions, which could impact operations and profitability, as the company relies on a complex network of suppliers for materials and components [21].