Why U.S. Natural Gas Prices Just Exploded to Multi-Year Highs

Industry Overview - U.S. natural gas prices experienced a significant surge, climbing from near $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to approximately $5.27 per MMBtu, marking a weekly gain of roughly 70%, the strongest in over three decades [2][7] - The increase in prices was driven by colder weather forecasts, which heightened expectations for heating demand and tightened supply-demand balances [2][3] Market Dynamics - The surge in natural gas prices was attributed to a classic winter squeeze, with Winter Storm Fern and an Arctic blast raising heating and power demand while increasing the risk of production freeze-offs [3][7] - U.S. storage levels showed a withdrawal of 120 billion cubic feet, leaving inventories modestly above the five-year average, which provides limited reassurance against prolonged cold [4] Investment Opportunities - The recent price movements have reset expectations for natural gas, with strong winter demand and rising supply risks improving the outlook for producers directly exposed to gas prices [5][6] - Companies such as Expand Energy (EXE), Comstock Resources (CRK), and Antero Resources (AR) have shown solid gains, reflecting the renewed momentum in gas prices [6][7] Company Profiles - Expand Energy (EXE): The largest natural gas producer in the U.S., well-positioned to benefit from increasing demand driven by LNG exports and electrification trends. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2026 earnings per share indicates a 31% year-over-year surge [9][10] - Comstock Resources (CRK): Focused on the Haynesville and Bossier shales, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2026 earnings per share indicating a 32.6% year-over-year surge. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of approximately 220.5% [11][12] - Antero Resources (AR): Concentrated on natural gas and liquids in the Appalachian Basin, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2026 earnings per share indicating an 87% year-over-year surge. The company benefits from a low debt profile and an integrated setup with its midstream affiliate [13][14]