市场对特朗普关税威胁“免疫”？经济学家：仅约四分之一真正实施

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff threats issued by President Trump are perceived by the financial markets and corporate sectors as negotiation tactics rather than actual policy actions, leading to a relatively muted response from investors and executives [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Threats and Market Reaction - Trump has issued four significant tariff threats in less than three weeks, which typically would cause investor volatility and corporate anxiety, but the current market response has been relatively calm [1]. - Approximately 25% of Trump's tariff threats have been implemented, while around 43% have been retracted, indicating a low execution rate of his threats [1]. - The market views these threats as tools for negotiation rather than definitive policy changes, reflecting a decrease in sensitivity among investors to Trump's tariff rhetoric [4]. Group 2: Analysis of Tariff Threats - Economists Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Chris Kennedy reviewed 49 tariff threats or new trade investigations proposed by Trump since the November 2024 election, finding that over half were not fully executed [4]. - The actual implementation of threats or investigations has been concentrated between February and September, with a noticeable reduction in threats towards the end of the year, suggesting a correlation with public sentiment regarding domestic cost pressures [4]. - The pattern of Trump's tariff threats shows that he tends to retract the most eye-catching and impactful threats, particularly those that could significantly raise actual tariffs or disrupt the trade truce with China [4].