Novo Nordisk vs. Viking: Which Obesity Drug Stock is the Safer Bet?

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) are significant players in the obesity treatment market, with NVO being a market leader in GLP-1 therapies and VKTX developing a promising investigational drug [2][3][4]. Group 1: Novo Nordisk (NVO) - NVO holds a 59% global market share in the GLP-1 segment for diabetes and obesity care as of September 2025 [5]. - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity and pursuing new indications for its semaglutide drugs, including cardiovascular (CV) risk reduction [6][7]. - The FDA approved NVO's 25 mg oral semaglutide (Wegovy pill) for obesity and CV disease, which has shown strong initial demand in the U.S. market [8]. - NVO is advancing its next-generation obesity pipeline, including CagriSema and amycretin, with several collaborations and acquisitions enhancing its portfolio [9]. - Despite recent successes, NVO faced challenges in 2025, including supply constraints and increased competition from Eli Lilly, leading to revised sales and profit growth outlooks [12][13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVO's 2025 sales and earnings per share (EPS) indicates a year-over-year increase of approximately 14% and 9%, respectively [20]. Group 2: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) - VKTX's investigational drug VK2735 has shown potential for significant weight loss but faced setbacks due to mixed phase II study results and high dropout rates [14][15][16]. - The company is focusing on its obesity pipeline and plans to file for a new drug application for a dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist [18]. - VKTX lacks an approved product, making it vulnerable to intense competition and dependent on clinical outcomes for valuation [19][31]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests VKTX's loss per share will widen by approximately 165% in 2025 [20]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - NVO's shares have decreased by 7.2% over the past six months, while VKTX shares are down 4.4%, compared to a 20.8% return for the industry [25]. - NVO trades at a price/book (P/B) ratio of 10.74, significantly higher than VKTX's 5.03, indicating a more expensive valuation for NVO [27]. - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), but NVO is viewed as a safer investment due to its established revenue base and multiple growth catalysts [29][30].