美元指数承压徘徊于四年低位 市场等待美联储给予方向

Group 1 - The dollar index continues to decline, approaching its lowest point since February 2022, with a daily drop of approximately 0.50%, currently reported at 96.61 [1] - Major currencies against the dollar are maintaining an upward trend, with the euro rising 0.3% to 1.1920, the highest level since June 2021, and the British pound increasing 0.4% to 1.3730, the highest since July 2 of last year [1] - The Australian dollar reached a new high of 0.6952, up 0.54%, the highest since February 2023 [1] Group 2 - The Japanese yen continues its strong upward trend, with market expectations of potential coordinated intervention by the US and Japan in the currency market [3] - The dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of over 1.3% this year, facing selling pressure as investors reassess their allocations to dollar assets amid multiple risks [3] - Political uncertainties in the US are viewed as negative for the dollar, with market participants incorporating a political risk premium into their assessments [3] Group 3 - The current currency market is sensitive to policy changes, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, US fiscal risks, and geopolitical developments being key variables [4] - The dollar may remain in a low volatility range until clearer signals regarding the interest rate path are provided by the Federal Reserve [4] - Most Federal Reserve officials expect to maintain interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause since three consecutive rate cuts last September [4] Group 4 - Attention is shifting towards the appointment of the next Federal Reserve chair, with discussions on how this will impact market pricing of medium to long-term policy paths [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in June, followed by another cut in September, bringing the target rate range down to 3%-3.25% [5] - This forecast aligns with current pricing in federal funds futures, which suggest a cumulative rate cut of approximately 46 basis points by the end of 2026 [5]