金改前沿｜理财产品平均收益率跌破2% “三连降”后还有吸引力吗？

Core Viewpoint - The bank wealth management market is projected to exceed 30 trillion yuan, reaching a historical high of 33.29 trillion yuan by 2025, despite a continuous decline in average product yields, which have fallen below 2% for the first time in three years [1][4]. Market Size and Growth - As of the end of 2025, the bank wealth management market's total size reached 33.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan year-on-year, representing an 11.15% growth [1]. - Approximately 18 million new investors entered the market, bringing the total number of investors holding wealth management products to 143 million, with 17.69 million new individual investors since early 2024 [1]. Investor Behavior and Product Types - The decline in deposit rates has led to a shift towards bank wealth management products, which are perceived to offer better returns compared to traditional deposits [2]. - The majority of wealth management products are low-risk fixed-income products, with a total size of 32.32 trillion yuan, accounting for 97.09% of the market [2]. - The proportion of individual investors with a risk preference classified as level two (conservative) remains the highest at 33.54% [2]. Role of Regional Banks - Regional banks have played a significant role in the wealth management market, with 593 institutions participating in cross-selling wealth management products by the end of 2025, an increase of 31 from the beginning of the year [3]. - The digital transformation of the banking industry has facilitated easier access for investors to wealth management products through online channels [3]. Yield Trends - The average yield of wealth management products fell to 1.98% in 2025, down from 2.65% in 2024 and 2.94% in 2023, marking a continuous decline over three years [4]. - The decline in yields is attributed to lower returns on underlying assets, primarily deposits and bonds, as well as a scarcity of high-yield assets [4]. Market Outlook for 2026 - The trend of declining yields is expected to continue into 2026, with many wealth management companies already lowering their performance benchmarks for new products by up to 100 basis points [6]. - Despite the low yield environment, the trend of funds migrating from deposits to wealth management products is expected to persist, leading to continued market expansion [6]. - Some analysts predict that yields may stabilize in 2026 due to the current low levels of bond rates, while others suggest that "fixed income plus" products will be key to enhancing returns [7].