Nebius vs. Amazon: Which AI Cloud Stock is the Better Buy?

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) present distinct investment profiles in the AI cloud sector, with NBIS focusing on high growth and direct exposure to AI infrastructure demand, while AMZN offers stability and diversification through its established AWS platform [1][2] Group 1: Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) - Nebius operates in a supply-constrained AI infrastructure market, targeting a contracted power capacity increase to 2.5 gigawatts by 2026 from 1 gigawatt, with 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt expected to be operational by the end of 2026 [3] - The company has secured significant long-term contracts with Microsoft, valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion, and with Meta, up to $3 billion, with revenue contributions anticipated to begin in Q4 2025 [4][9] - Nebius is expanding its global data center footprint, planning to enhance existing facilities in the U.K., Israel, and New Jersey, while targeting $7–$9 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 2026 [6][9] - The company has raised its capital expenditure outlook from approximately $2 billion to about $5 billion for 2025, which increases execution risk if revenue growth does not align with capital-intensive strategies [7] Group 2: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon continues to lead in e-commerce and cloud computing, with innovations like AI-powered shopping assistants enhancing customer engagement and driving sales [10] - AWS remains a key growth driver, offering extensive infrastructure and AI-focused services that simplify the deployment of AI models, reinforcing Amazon's leadership in cloud-based AI [11][12] - Amazon's substantial investments in AI infrastructure, including custom chips and AI clusters, position the company to meet rising demand for AI workloads, although these investments also strain financial resources [13] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Over the past month, NBIS shares have increased by 6.3%, while AMZN stock has risen by 2.8% [14] - Valuation analysis indicates that Nebius is currently overvalued, while Amazon is considered undervalued, with respective Value Scores of F and B [15] - Analysts have significantly revised earnings estimates upward for NBIS, while there has been a marginal downward revision for AMZN [20][21] - In terms of Zacks Rank, NBIS holds a Rank 3 (Hold), whereas AMZN has a Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting that AMZN may be a more favorable investment at this time [21]