Bitcoin rises from one-month low while derivatives flash near-term stress: Crypto Markets Today

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a recovery after hitting a low of $86,000, rising over 2% within nine hours before facing resistance at $88,250, indicating a potential early bear-market reversal despite an ongoing downtrend since October [1] - The recent selloff was influenced by risk-off sentiment among investors, following U.S. President Trump's speeches at Davos, which affected Bitcoin's status as a safe-haven asset and aligned it more closely with U.S. equities [2] Derivatives Positioning - Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) remained stable at $22.6 billion, suggesting a pause in deleveraging despite price volatility [3] - Funding rates across most exchanges have neutralized around 5% annualized, with OKX showing a -3.8% rate, indicating localized hedging or bearish positions [3] - The 3-month annualized basis on Binance and Deribit increased to just over 5%, reflecting a firming institutional appetite during market consolidation [3] - BTC options displayed high conviction with a 15% one-week 25-delta skew and 58% call dominance in 24-hour volume [3] - Implied volatility (IV) term structure shifted from contango to backwardation, with near-term rates higher than those further out, indicating a premium for immediate positioning [3] Liquidation and Altcoin Performance - Coinglass data reported $744 million in liquidations within 24 hours, with a 77-23 split between longs and shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3] - Bitcoin's weakness contrasted with altcoin resilience, as Ether (ETH) and XRP rose by 2.8%, while privacy coins Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) gained 6% and 3%, respectively [3] - Metaverse tokens performed notably, with Axie Infinity (AXS) increasing by over 23%, contributing to a 34.4% year-to-date rally in the CoinDesk Metaverse Select Index (MTVS) [3] Altcoin Market Dynamics - The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index, dominated by Bitcoin, has lost 0.52% since the start of the year, while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) Index, heavy on altcoins, has risen by 2.5%, indicating relative strength among altcoins [4] - RIVER, the native token of a stablecoin protocol, surged over 2,100% in the past 30 days, with a 34% increase in the last 24 hours [4] - The "altcoin season" indicator is currently at 28/100, significantly higher than last month's 16/100 but still below September's peak of 76/100 [4] - A lack of liquidity and market depth since October's $19 billion liquidation cascade has led to exaggerated altcoin movements, resulting in high liquidation rates during selloffs and rapid recoveries [4]