QBTS or IONQ: Which Quantum Stock Wins After January Sell-Off?

Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing stocks faced sector-wide weakness due to global macro and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a shift towards safe-haven assets and away from speculative quantum technology stocks [2] Group 1: Market Performance - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) shares declined by 13.4% since January 23, 2026, while IonQ (IONQ) experienced a 12.1% pullback, reflecting a cooling sentiment towards high-valuation quantum stocks [3][10] - The durability of this pullback remains uncertain, but IONQ is seen as a leader in advanced technology, while QBTS is gaining attention for its near-term revenue visibility [5] Group 2: Company Insights - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) - QBTS has entered 2026 with strong commercial adoption, generating revenues from production-ready quantum systems and cloud-based QCaaS offerings, supported by over 100 paying customers [6] - The company reported triple-digit revenue growth, expanding gross margins, and a cash balance exceeding $800 million at the end of Q3 2025, providing flexibility for scaling operations [7] - QBTS's loss per share estimate for 2026 has improved to 19 cents from a previous estimate of 23 cents, indicating a 7% improvement year-over-year [8] Group 3: Company Insights - IonQ (IONQ) - IONQ has shown strong momentum with 222% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, exceeding guidance by 37%, indicating accelerating commercial adoption [11] - The company achieved key technological milestones, including a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, and expanded its capabilities through strategic acquisitions [11] - IONQ's loss per share estimate for 2026 has widened to $1.74 from a previous estimate of $1.63, although this still reflects a 65.8% improvement from the year-ago projected EPS [12] Group 4: Valuation Comparison - QBTS currently trades at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 188.2X, compared to IONQ's 72.5X, indicating a richer valuation for QBTS [13] Group 5: Investment Perspective - D-Wave Quantum appears better positioned than IonQ despite its higher valuation, supported by near-term revenue visibility and improving loss estimates [14] - IONQ is more sensitive to valuation resets, with widening loss estimates and returns heavily reliant on future milestones rather than current monetization [14]