智通财经网·2026-01-27 22:45Core Viewpoint - The current global easing cycle is reshaping monetary policy paths and market dynamics, with a high likelihood of continued accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve regardless of the new chairperson [1][4]. Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - The correlation among global capital markets has significantly increased, with major economies like China and Europe synchronously advancing liquidity easing since the Fed's rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [2]. - Equity markets are performing strongly, with indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 leading gains, while emerging market indices like the Shanghai Composite and Ho Chi Minh Index are also showing impressive performance [2]. - Precious and industrial metal prices are rising in tandem, indicating a strong correlation between commodity and equity markets, driven by the pricing of easing transactions [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has become more transparent and predictable over the past 40 years, transitioning from secretive to open decision-making, emphasizing communication with the market [3]. - The shift from experience-driven to data-driven decision-making has been established, with the FOMC creating extensive economic databases to support interest rate decisions [3]. - There is a growing emphasis on managing market expectations, with various mechanisms introduced over the years to enhance communication regarding interest rate decisions [3]. Group 3: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The four candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, including Rick Reed, Kevin Walsh, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Hassett, are perceived to lean dovish, suggesting a high probability of continued global easing and high liquidity in the short term [4]. - Kevin Walsh is favored due to his experience and market trust, while Rick Reed is noted for his independence and clear interest rate targets [4]. - The Trump administration's inclination to intervene in Federal Reserve decisions may impact the independence of monetary policy, necessitating close monitoring of candidates' connections to the White House [4].