美联储降息空间有限 未来两年或只有两次降息

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates that despite President Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts, respondents expect the Federal Reserve to only lower rates twice in the next two years, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Respondents anticipate two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, leading to a target federal funds rate of 3% to 3.25% until 2027 [1]. - The survey reflects a consensus that the next Federal Reserve chair will not fully comply with Trump's wishes for aggressive rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Economic Growth Outlook - The survey projects U.S. GDP growth at 2.4% for this year and 2.2% for next year, both above the Fed's potential growth estimate [3]. - Unemployment is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% by year-end but is projected to decline next year [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to reach 2.7% by year-end and drop to 2.5% by 2027, indicating that inflation is nearing the Fed's target [4]. - The anticipated inflation increase due to tariffs is about 0.3 percentage points this year [5]. Group 4: Tariff Impact and Economic Sentiment - 58% of respondents believe that most tariff impacts have already been absorbed by the economy, although tariffs are still expected to hinder economic growth and increase inflation [5]. - The probability of a U.S. recession in the next year has decreased from 30% to 23%, reflecting improved economic sentiment [4]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - There is a divergence between survey respondents and prediction markets regarding the next Federal Reserve chair, with 50% believing Trump will choose former Fed governor Kevin Walsh [6]. - Regardless of the new chair's stance, it is believed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain checks and balances [6].