沥青价格日内震荡波动，维稳收尾再次释放抗跌属性

Market Overview - The main contract for asphalt (BU 2603) experienced a day of volatility with a fluctuation of 1.19%, closing at 3279, unchanged from the previous day's close, with an intraday high of 3299 and a low of 3260 [29][30] - The June contract saw a slight decline of 0.55% [29] Spot Market Fundamentals - As of January 26, the DES Shandong diluted asphalt spot premium was recorded at $15.97 per barrel, maintaining a range of $15-16 per barrel recently [29] - On January 27, the low-end price for East China heavy asphalt was 3180 yuan/ton, while the high-end price was 3230 yuan/ton, with low-end resources increasing from 3150 yuan/ton on January 23, and high-end prices remaining stable [29] - The spot market is operating steadily with no significant changes, primarily driven by demand-based procurement [29] Short-term Outlook - Asphalt has shown resilience against declines, with price fluctuations remaining stable compared to other energy products [30] - The market is influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran relations, which adds complexity to the cost dynamics [30] - A strategy has been suggested to focus on near-month contracts while monitoring geopolitical developments [30] Long-term Outlook - After geopolitical factors dissipate, the June contract is expected to have bullish potential based on global supply-demand improvements and domestic construction activity [30] - The domestic inventory of raw materials is sufficient until the end of February, which may drive prices post-Spring Festival [30] Key Data Points - The closing price for asphalt was 3279 yuan/ton, with Brent crude oil priced at $64.43 per barrel [31] - The market price for Shandong heavy asphalt was 3140 yuan/ton, with East China heavy asphalt at 3200 yuan/ton [31]