Dollar Falls to 4-Month Low and Precious Metals Surge to Record Highs

Group 1 - The dollar index has fallen to a new 4-month low, down -0.61%, influenced by speculation of potential US-Japan FX intervention to support the yen [1] - Foreign investors are withdrawing capital from the US due to political risks, particularly concerns surrounding Greenland and trade agreements [2] - Political uncertainty is further impacting the dollar, with President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada if Canada signs a trade agreement with China [3] Group 2 - The risk of a partial US government shutdown is contributing to the dollar's weakness, as Senate Democrats threaten to block funding deals [4] - The US durable goods report showed a stronger-than-expected increase of +5.3% month-over-month, providing some underlying support for the dollar [5] - Market expectations indicate a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with projections of a -50 basis point cut in 2026 [6]