苹果，当前的供需情况

Core Viewpoint - Apple is expected to experience a significant increase in demand starting in the second half of 2025, surpassing the highs of 2022 and 2023, and approaching levels seen in 2018 [2][14]. Supply Situation - Apple supply is characterized by seasonal production and annual sales, with concentrated harvesting occurring from September to November each year [4][16]. - The projected apple production for 2025 is 34.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons from the previous year, indicating a reduction in supply [4][16]. - Current apple cold storage inventory stands at 6.82 million tons, continuing a downward trend and marking the lowest stock levels in recent years [6][18]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for apples is characterized by rigidity and differentiated fluctuations, primarily influenced by holiday consumption and seasonal fruit substitutes [10][22]. - The peak consumption period occurs during the Spring Festival, with increased stocking for holidays and limited winter fruit varieties [10][22]. - Since January, the volume of apple shipments has been steadily increasing as pre-holiday consumption has begun [10][22]. Inventory Implications - Low inventory levels suggest that there may be insufficient supply if consumption increases significantly, particularly before holidays [7][19]. - Without new supply, existing inventory will continue to deplete until the new apple harvest in 2026 [9][21].