智通财经网·2026-01-28 02:15Core Viewpoint - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see a mid-term recovery in profitability due to supply-side policy restrictions, structural optimization, and rapid growth in emerging oil products like SAF, with key recommendations for leading domestic refining and chemical companies [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Trends - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry, emphasizing "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" and controlling new refining capacity [1] - By September 2025, the plan aims to prevent overcapacity in coal-to-methanol and support the transformation of aging petrochemical facilities [1] - The refining capacity in China is approaching the policy limit of 1 billion tons, leading to the gradual elimination of smaller capacities and an increase in the proportion of large-scale refineries [1] Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - International oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $55-65 per barrel by 2026, aligning with refinery cost comfort zones, aided by Saudi Arabia's recent reductions in OSP prices [2] - The cost structure for refining is improving due to lower OSP prices and increased domestic refinery operating rates, despite geopolitical uncertainties [2] Group 3: Profitability and Market Conditions - Although demand for refined oil products is slowing, the supply-side restrictions and cost improvements are leading to an upward shift in the crack spread, enhancing refinery profitability [3] - The PX and PTA sectors are experiencing a recovery in profitability due to zero expansion in PX capacity and increasing demand from downstream industries [4] Group 4: Emerging Markets and Future Opportunities - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is projected to grow significantly, with the EU setting a target for SAF blending ratios to exceed 70% by 2050, indicating a demand potential of over 40 million tons [5] - China's SAF production capacity is expected to increase rapidly, potentially filling global supply gaps as SAF becomes a new growth area post-peak oil demand [5] Group 5: Sulfur Market Dynamics - Sulfur prices are rising significantly due to tight supply and increasing demand from the fertilizer and renewable energy sectors, which will enhance the profitability of refining and chemical companies [6] - Recent price increases for sulfur in Qatar and the UAE indicate a strong upward trend, benefiting companies with substantial sulfur production capacities like Sinopec and PetroChina [6]