智通财经网·2026-01-28 02:28Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), citing continued growth momentum amid gold price fluctuations and macro uncertainties, with optimism regarding product structure adjustments and overseas expansion enhancing profit quality [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook achieved a strong recovery in FY2026 Q3 (October-December 2025), with retail sales value (RSV) increasing by 17.8% year-on-year, and a 16.9% increase in mainland China [1] - Same-store sales (SSSG) for direct and franchise stores rose significantly by 21.4% and 26.3%, respectively, while retail value in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 22.9% year-on-year, with same-store sales increasing by 10.1% in Hong Kong and 31.3% in Macau [1] Group 2: Product Structure Optimization - The company is shifting its product structure towards high-margin jewelry, with same-store retail value for priced jewelry in mainland China growing by 13.7%, contributing 40% to total sales, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The IP cultural series continues to perform strongly, and diamond and jadeite businesses have returned to positive growth, contributing to structural optimization [2] - Average selling prices have significantly increased due to rising gold prices, with the average price of gold in mainland China reaching HKD 11,000 (up 50.7% year-on-year) and priced gold averaging HKD 9,500 (up 82.6% year-on-year) [2] Group 3: Channel and Store Structure - By the end of 2025, the total number of "Chow Tai Fook Jewelry" stores reached 5,585, with a net reduction of 230 stores in mainland China, indicating that structural contraction is nearing completion [3] - E-commerce in mainland China grew by 25% in FY2026 Q3, accounting for 7.4% of mainland RSV, driven by marketing campaigns such as Double Eleven [3] - The tourism retail segment also contributed positively, with duty-free gold in Hainan attracting many consumers due to its high cost-performance ratio [3] Group 4: Overseas Expansion - The Southeast Asian market has been operational for six years, contributing 15.2% to the group's retail value with significant growth [4] - Same-store sales in Southeast Asia, including Singapore and Malaysia, have improved, with high-end stores at Changi Airport in Singapore and flagship stores in Bangkok now operational [4] - Future expansion plans include Vancouver and Sydney, with a dual-track development strategy focusing on upgrading existing markets and entering emerging markets [4]