光大期货：1月28日软商品日报

Sugar Market - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with an average daily export of 108,600 tons [2] - In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume is projected to be 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average of 93,700 tons [2] - Domestic sugar prices are slightly down, with Guangxi Sugar Group quoting between 5,250 to 5,320 CNY/ton and Yunnan Sugar Group between 5,120 to 5,170 CNY/ton, both down by 10 CNY/ton [2] - Raw sugar remains in the range of 14.5 to 15 cents per pound, with no significant breakthroughs expected [2] - As the holiday approaches, domestic spot transactions are slowing down, but market consensus suggests effective cost support, limiting the potential for significant price declines [2] - Short-term outlook is for price fluctuations, while medium-term focus will be on import rhythms to assess the possibility of forming a mid-term bottom [2] Cotton Market - ICE cotton rose by 1.29% to 63.78 cents per pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures fell by 0.38% to 14,565 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 9,225 contracts to 786,700 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is at 15,535 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - Internationally, macroeconomic disturbances are increasing, with a greater than 95% probability of no interest rate cuts in January, and expectations for the first rate cut of the year pushed to June [8] - Domestic cotton market shows limited pre-holiday demand from textile enterprises, with raw material inventory levels at moderately high levels [8] - Cotton inventory is at a yearly high, with increased imports leading to ample supply, making it difficult for prices to sustain upward momentum [4][8] - The overall expectation is for cotton prices to remain volatile before the holiday, with medium to long-term prospects still looking promising [4][8]