瑞士法郎强势震荡格局下 多空博弈

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to show strong fluctuations influenced by safe-haven capital inflows, global central bank policy divergence, and economic fundamentals, with medium to long-term trends driven by policy stability and external risk events [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the CHF has appreciated against the Chinese Yuan (CNY) to 9.0686, marking a 1.28% increase from the previous trading day [1]. - The CHF is trading at 1.0693 against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD further declining to 0.7669, reflecting a 1.24% drop, indicating the weakening of the USD supports the CHF [1]. - The CHF maintains a stable range against the Euro (EUR) between 1.08 and 1.09, showcasing its defensive attributes compared to other currencies [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has kept the policy interest rate at 0% as of December 2025, reiterating the need for foreign exchange interventions while maintaining a loose monetary stance following a 25 basis point cut in June 2025 [1]. - The SNB's leadership has indicated a reluctance to reintroduce negative interest rates due to potential adverse effects on pensions, reinforcing expectations of policy stability [1]. - Market predictions suggest that the zero interest rate policy will likely remain until the second half of 2027, aimed at preventing excessive CHF appreciation and supporting domestic demand [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Swiss economy is characterized by a "weak external, strong internal" dynamic, with exports facing pressure from high tariffs, particularly in the watch and food processing sectors, leading to a 7.3% year-on-year decline in watch exports as of November 2025 [2]. - Despite a recent tariff agreement with the US that reduced rates from 39% to 15%, the recovery of the export sector is expected to take time [2]. - Domestic low interest rates are driving housing prices up, effectively boosting consumption and investment, which helps mitigate some of the export weaknesses [3]. Group 4: Future Projections - The Swiss economy is projected to see GDP growth slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, with an expected unemployment rate of 3.0% and inflation at only 0.4% [3]. - Institutions forecast that the CHF will continue to experience strong fluctuations, with limited volatility under the balance of opposing forces [3]. - Exchange rate predictions indicate that the USD/CHF will range between 0.79 and 0.81 throughout the year, while the EUR/CHF is expected to remain stable, with potential declines towards 0.91 by year-end [3].