光大期货：1月28日有色金属日报

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed a downward trend, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses, although the loss margin has narrowed [3][12] - Macro factors include a rising probability of a new U.S. government shutdown by the end of January, affecting market confidence in U.S. political and economic stability [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 1,825 tons to 172,350 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,921 tons to 516,070 tons [3][12] - The current copper price logic cannot be simply determined by fundamentals, but should also consider financial attributes, maintaining a view of a fluctuating but generally upward trend [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 1.91% to $18,235 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.96% to 143,420 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory increased by 174 tons to 285,726 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 18 tons to 42,499 tons [4][13] - Indonesia's nickel ore production is expected to decline by 10% to 15% compared to last year, raising concerns about supply [4][14] - The market sentiment is influenced by potential supply issues from Indonesia, leading to a short-term upward pressure on nickel prices [4][14] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,766 yuan per ton, up 1.62% [5][15] - SHFE aluminum prices also showed a slight increase, with AL2603 closing at 24,350 yuan per ton, up 0.43% [5][15] - The current reduction in production and inventory is insufficient to sustain a rebound, leading to doubts about the continuity of price increases [5][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,860 yuan per ton, down 0.78% [6][16] - Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 51,900 yuan per ton, up 0.42% [6][16] - Supply-side expectations are tightening due to production cuts, while high inventory levels dilute the strength of replenishment [6][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.5% to 179,600 yuan per ton, while the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 9,000 yuan to 172,500 yuan per ton [7][17] - Weekly production of lithium raw materials decreased, with spodumene lithium production down by 210 tons to 13,914 tons [7][17] - Despite a slight increase in downstream inventory, the overall market remains cautious due to potential supply disruptions and high inventory levels [7][17]