东北证券：维持周大福“买入”评级 FY2026Q3同店销售超预期

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), highlighting the company's growth momentum amid gold price fluctuations and macro uncertainties, and optimistic about product structure adjustments and overseas expansion enhancing profitability quality [2][9] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook achieved a strong recovery in FY2026 Q3 (October-December 2025), with retail sales value (RSV) increasing by 17.8% year-on-year, and a 16.9% rise in mainland China [3][10] - Same-store sales (SSSG) for direct and franchise stores surged by 21.4% and 26.3% respectively, while retail sales in Hong Kong and Macau grew by 22.9% year-on-year, with same-store growth of 10.1% in Hong Kong and 31.3% in Macau [3][10] Group 2: Product and Channel Strategy - The company is shifting its product structure towards high-margin jewelry, with same-store retail value for priced jewelry in mainland China growing by 13.7%, contributing 40% to total sales, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [4][11] - The average selling price has significantly increased due to rising gold prices, with the average price of gold in mainland China reaching HKD 11,000 (up 50.7% year-on-year) and priced gold averaging HKD 9,500 (up 82.6% year-on-year) [4][11] - The total number of Chow Tai Fook stores reached 5,585 by the end of 2025, with a net closure of 230 stores in mainland China, indicating that structural adjustments are nearing completion [12] Group 3: E-commerce and Tourism Retail Growth - E-commerce in mainland China grew by 25% in FY2026 Q3, accounting for 7.4% of RSV, driven by marketing events like Double Eleven [12] - The tourism retail segment also contributed positively, with duty-free gold in Hainan attracting many consumers due to its high cost-performance ratio [12] Group 4: Overseas Expansion - The Southeast Asian market has been operational for six years, contributing 15.2% to the group's retail value with significant growth [6][12] - New stores in Singapore and Malaysia have shown improved same-store sales, with high-end stores at Changi Airport and flagship stores in Bangkok now operational, and plans for expansion in Vancouver and Sydney [6][12]