中银国际化工行业2026年度策略：行业周期拐点已近 新材料蓄势腾飞

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to remain at a low level of prosperity in 2025, with potential recovery in profitability driven by "anti-involution" measures and rapid growth in new materials due to downstream demand in 2026. Current industry valuations are low, maintaining a strong market rating with three investment themes recommended [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Chemical product prices are at historical lows, with the basic chemical profitability cycle hitting a bottom. As of November 2025, the national industrial product PPI, production materials PPI, and chemical industry PPI have shown negative year-on-year growth for 38 consecutive months, marking the second-longest period of negative growth in history [1]. - As of the first three quarters of 2025, the sales gross margin and net profit margin for the SW basic chemical industry were 16.82% and 6.41%, respectively. The SW oil and petrochemical industry saw a net profit of 276.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.07%, with sales gross margin and net profit margin at 19.03% and 5.26% [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 1,462.86 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%. However, the growth rate of ongoing projects turned negative for the first time in nearly four years, with ongoing projects decreasing to 358.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.11% [2]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and resource efficiency, which will accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity under stricter energy consumption and environmental standards [3]. Group 4: Demand Trends - Domestic real estate demand is under pressure, but demand for automobiles and chemical fibers continues to grow. From January to October 2025, the demand for products related to the real estate chain declined, while demand for home appliance-related products remained stable, and automotive and chemical fiber production maintained low double-digit to high single-digit growth [4]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to continue growing due to the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies and the rapid development of downstream industries such as new energy, AI, semiconductors, and humanoid robots during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Group 5: Cost Factors - The global oil market in 2026 may still experience an oversupply situation, with international oil prices potentially having room to decline. However, major consuming countries like China, the U.S., and India may increase oil reserves, which could alleviate some supply pressure. The expected range for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 is between $50 and $70 per barrel [5].