锌价“乘风破浪”：宏观与基本面交织下的行情变奏曲

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices are experiencing a unique upward trend driven by macroeconomic factors, including strong oil prices and a weaker US dollar, despite uncertainties in the international market and domestic demand challenges [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 0.6% increase year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in the domestic industrial economy and potential support for zinc demand [1]. - The US consumer confidence index fell by 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, the lowest since 2014, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook, which may suppress zinc demand [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the domestic zinc market, both supply and demand remain weak. Zinc concentrate processing fees are at low levels, with domestic fees between 1,100 and 1,500 yuan per metal ton, constraining zinc supply and providing support for prices [3]. - Despite the low processing fees, smelters face production pressure, limiting refined zinc output. However, high zinc prices maintain production willingness among smelters [3]. - Domestic refined zinc social inventory was 109,900 tons as of Monday, a slight increase of 1,300 tons since January 22, indicating limited pressure on zinc prices [3]. International Market Influences - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are adding uncertainty to zinc prices. Such tensions can lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, potentially suppressing demand for industrial metals like zinc [4]. - The late timing of the Spring Festival in January and the overall stable consumption performance may lead to fluctuations in zinc prices, with current expectations for a short-term rebound, although the upward potential may be limited [4].