沈建光：2026年人民币不该也不会大幅升值

Core Viewpoint - The central bank aims to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, with expectations for the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate to surpass 7 by the end of 2025 and continue to rise, driven by three key factors [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's current account surplus is expected to reach a historical high by the end of 2025, with a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD for the first time in 2025, and a current account surplus of 492.8 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly up from 241.3 billion USD in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 reached 50.1, exceeding market expectations, indicating improved confidence in the Chinese economy [1]. Group 2: Government Measures - The Chinese government has implemented various measures to boost the economy, including allowing local governments to allocate 500 billion CNY for enhancing fiscal capacity and expanding effective investment, as well as injecting 500 billion CNY in new policy financial tools to support project construction [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The recent weakening of the USD, influenced by soft non-farm employment data, concerns over high valuations in the US stock market, and the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate cuts, has created favorable conditions for the RMB exchange rate [2]. - The Balassa-Samuelson effect suggests that the long-term trend does not support significant appreciation of the RMB, as productivity growth in the manufacturing sector has slowed down, impacting the overall labor productivity growth in China [3][4]. Group 4: External Factors - The share of the US market in China's exports has decreased from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.8% in the first 11 months of 2025, while the importance of non-US markets, such as Latin America, has increased [5]. - Geopolitical changes may negatively impact China's external demand, making it crucial to maintain the price competitiveness of Chinese export products in international markets, as excessive appreciation of the RMB could hinder exports [5].