顺周期崛起！有色、油气板块领涨大市，顺周期“冰火转换”时刻已至？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market remains robust in 2026, with a notable rise in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and oil and gas, contrasting with the extreme growth style of 2025. These sectors are expected to be the most prominent during the current spring rally [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 28, the non-ferrous and oil and gas sectors led the market, with the non-ferrous ETF (Huatai-PB) rising by 3.72% and the oil and gas ETF (Huatai-PB) increasing by 3.24%, both reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous ETF tracks an index with a "gold and copper content" of 46%, making it a leader among similar indices [3]. Group 2: Global and Domestic Factors - The current spring rally in cyclical sectors is driven by multiple factors, including global macroeconomic conditions, expectations of A-share profit recovery, and capital inflows anticipating a recovery [2]. - From a global perspective, the expansion of dollar credit and frequent geopolitical conflicts have enhanced the monetary and safe-haven attributes of commodities, initiating a super cycle for commodities [2][3]. - Domestically, the market is expected to gradually shift towards high-performing companies, with improved corporate earnings anticipated to support the A-share market in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in fund allocation towards cyclical industries, with a 2.1 percentage point rise in the holding ratio of global-priced non-ferrous metals to 8.0%, reaching a historical high [3]. - The non-ferrous sector benefits from multiple favorable factors, including monetary easing, supply-side rigidity, and new demand drivers [3][15]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector includes all metals except ferrous metals, with gold, copper, and lithium being key components. The current rally is primarily driven by gold and copper [3][5]. - The copper market is expected to experience a significant supply-demand gap, with projections indicating a growing deficit over the next five years, enhancing the long-term outlook for copper prices [13][14]. Group 5: Oil and Gas Sector Dynamics - The oil and gas sector is supported by seasonal recovery, geopolitical premiums, and improved supply-demand dynamics, with oil prices reaching their highest levels since October of the previous year [16][19]. - The sector's high dividend yield, with the oil and gas ETF showing a 3.63% yield, significantly exceeds the Shanghai Composite Index's yield of 2.57% [19][24]. - The oil and gas sector is characterized by a focus on upstream and downstream industries, ensuring a concentrated investment in companies with quality reserves and stable dividend capabilities [21][22].