温彬：工业企业利润有望从阶段性修复向温和增长过渡

Core Insights - The overall profit growth of industrial enterprises in 2025 showed significant fluctuations but maintained a long-term positive trend, with a steady recovery in the profit foundation of enterprises [3][15]. Group 1: Profit Growth Overview - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with December showing a 5.3% increase year-on-year [1][15]. - The profit growth rate for December 2025 rebounded sharply from -13.1% in the previous month to 5.3%, an increase of 18.4 percentage points [2]. - For the entire year, the profit growth rate exhibited a "low first, high later, and fluctuating" trend, improving from -3.3% in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the mining sector, profits decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous improvement over five months [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 5% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month, with upstream raw material manufacturing profits growing by 10.6% [6][7]. - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed significantly to overall industrial profit growth, with a profit increase of 7.7%, driving a 2.8 percentage point increase in total profits for industrial enterprises [7]. Group 3: Inventory and Receivables - By the end of December, the nominal growth rate of finished goods inventory for industrial enterprises fell by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9%, indicating a reduction in inventory pressure due to improved sales [12]. - The average collection period for accounts receivable for industrial enterprises was 67.9 days, a decrease of 2.5 days from the previous value, reflecting improved cash flow management [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, industrial profits are expected to continue their recovery trend, supported by stable domestic consumption growth, gradual stabilization of investment, and improved export quality [18]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to ease cost pressures on enterprises, further supporting profit improvements [18].