Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-28 06:00Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, led by financial stocks like HSBC and AIA, has reached new highs, but trading volumes remain lower compared to previous peaks, indicating a potential for a volatile market ahead [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened high on January 28, reaching a midday close of 27,725 points, surpassing the previous high of 27,381 points from October 2, 2025 [1]. - Daily trading volumes have been around HKD 3 billion, with January 27's volume at HKD 257.3 billion, significantly lower than the peak of over HKD 410 billion in September 2025 [1][4]. - Financial stocks have driven the recent market rally, contrasting with the tech-led growth seen four months prior, where tech stocks like Tencent and Alibaba had much higher trading volumes [1][3]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Weighting - On January 27, HSBC traded HKD 2.73 billion, up 2.67%, while AIA traded HKD 2.715 billion, up 4.09% [2]. - In contrast, tech stocks like Tencent had trading volumes exceeding HKD 20 billion in September 2025, while recent volumes for Alibaba have dropped from over HKD 40 billion to just above HKD 10 billion [2][3]. - As of December 31, 2025, HSBC held an index weight of 8.98%, AIA at 5.24%, Tencent at 7.91%, and Alibaba at 7.41%, indicating a significant presence of financial stocks in the index despite lower trading volumes [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market lacks significant new capital inflows, with southbound capital flows showing signs of decline [4]. - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations for continued volatility and a focus on stock selection rather than broad index movements [4][5]. - There is an emphasis on identifying structural opportunities in sectors like advanced manufacturing and semiconductors, as well as in financially stable industries [5][6].