仲量联行：2025年中国商业地产市场展现出结构性韧性

Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate market in China is showing significant structural resilience amidst a complex macro environment, becoming a vital vehicle for supporting the real economy, promoting consumption upgrades, and facilitating domestic and international dual circulation [1] Group 1: Office Market Demand - In 2025, the demand for Grade A office space in major Chinese cities is experiencing a moderate recovery, with a net absorption of 1.629 million square meters in first-tier cities, supported significantly by the expansion of the technology sector [1] - The technology and internet industry is identified as the core engine for demand recovery, with active performance in sub-sectors such as artificial intelligence, mobile gaming, and consumer electronics, leading to a rebound in office demand across multiple cities [1] - In Shenzhen, technology companies dominate market transactions, accounting for nearly 30% of leasing area, while in Shanghai, the technology and internet sector recorded several large leasing transactions, increasing its demand share to 17%, becoming the second-largest source of demand [1] Group 2: Financial Services and New Office Demand - The financial services sector is maintaining a robust performance, with financial demand in Shanghai reaching 25%, driven by the expansion of quantitative investment and securities firms, significantly boosting demand for high-end office spaces in core cities [2] - Changes in consumer structure are giving rise to new types of office demand, with outdoor sports brands and trendy IPs establishing regional headquarters or flagship stores in Shanghai [2] - In Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the acceleration of domestic brands going global has led to a significant increase in office demand for supporting professional services such as cross-border legal consulting, international logistics, overseas marketing, and cross-border payments [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, high-tech and high-value-added industries are expected to continue driving office demand, with financial and professional services remaining foundational [2] - Certain cities, leveraging industrial clustering and openness, are anticipated to achieve demand recovery first in sectors such as consumer electronics, AI+, gaming industry, and Chinese enterprises going global, providing strong support for the long-term recovery of China's office market [2]