Xin Hua Cai Jing·2026-01-28 06:27Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market is rising, particularly in aluminum, which saw a significant price increase, reaching a historical high of 25,500 yuan/ton on January 28 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 28, funds flowed into Shanghai aluminum futures, leading to a price surge of over 5% [1] - The stock market also reflected this trend, with major resource companies, including China Aluminum, hitting a 10% limit-up, marking a historical high [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its aluminum price forecast for the first half of the year from $2,575 per ton to $3,150 per ton, citing low global inventories, concerns over power supply for new smelters in Indonesia, and strong global demand [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guosen Futures, noted that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing high volatility, with aluminum prices rising sharply, indicating a strategic bet in the financial market [1] - The concept of "substituting aluminum for copper" is expected to drive long-term demand growth for aluminum, despite the copper-aluminum ratio currently being at a historically high level of around 4.2 [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The financial market's bullish positioning on aluminum has significantly increased, suggesting a need for caution regarding actual downstream demand when assessing aluminum price fluctuations [1] - It is recommended to maintain a bullish offensive while controlling positions to mitigate risks associated with market volatility before the sensitive period of the Spring Festival [1]