美联储周三料将按兵不动 鲍威尔近期对经济避而不谈

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain short-term interest rates unchanged amid pressure from the White House for further rate cuts, as it waits for clearer economic trends [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - After three rate cuts last year, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates steady this week, reflecting a cautious approach in light of mixed economic signals [2][9]. - The unemployment rate appears to be stabilizing, and there are signs of potential economic recovery, although inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target [2][10]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee is divided, with some members advocating for no further cuts until inflation decreases, while others support additional cuts to bolster the job market [2][10]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Independence - The Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented pressure from the Trump administration, with recent legal actions against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell perceived as retaliation for not cutting rates quickly enough [3][10]. - Despite the political pressure, there is a notable bipartisan support for Powell among Senate Republicans, which may counteract Trump's influence in appointing a new Fed chair [3][11]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been maintained to a significant extent, as indicated by recent statements from former officials [11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts this year, likely in June or later, as economic conditions evolve [10][12]. - There are expectations that tax refunds exceeding normal levels will boost consumer spending, potentially leading to increased economic growth and job creation, despite current weaknesses in the job market [12]. - The consumer confidence index has dropped to an 11-year low, indicating persistent concerns about the economic outlook among residents [12].