Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-01-28 07:36Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is facing significant profit declines, with 2025 projected profits at 461 billion yuan, a mere 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a sales profit margin of 4.1%, which is below the average of 5.9% for downstream industrial enterprises [2] Group 1: Profit Trends - The automotive industry's profit margin is expected to drop to 4.1% in 2025, marking a five-year low, following a decline to 4.3% in 2024 [2] - In December 2025, the automotive industry reported profits of 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.4%, with a profit margin of 1.8%, significantly lower than the 4.1% in December 2024 [2] - Excluding the pandemic-affected April 2022, December 2025's profit margin is the lowest in five years [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The automotive supply chain shows a mixed performance, with upstream parts manufacturers experiencing stable growth, while vehicle manufacturing and downstream dealerships face significant challenges [3] - Among 22 A-share automotive companies, 16 reported profits, but major players like BYD and GAC Group saw substantial profit declines, with GAC Group's profit dropping by 3691.33% [3] - The dealership segment is under severe pressure, with only 28% meeting sales targets and a loss rate climbing to 55% [3] Group 3: Cost Pressures - The automotive industry is experiencing increased cost pressures, with lithium carbonate prices doubling and overall raw material costs rising, impacting profit margins [3][4] - The cost of a typical electric vehicle has increased by 4,000 to 7,000 yuan due to rising prices of lithium, aluminum, and copper, which manufacturers struggle to pass on to consumers [4] - Starting in 2026, a 5% tax on new energy vehicle purchases and changes to subsidy policies will further increase consumer costs, complicating demand and supply dynamics [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The China Automotive Industry Association forecasts total vehicle sales to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, a 1% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles projected to grow by 15.2% to 19 million units [5] - Some automotive companies are accelerating collaborations with upstream suppliers to address these challenges, focusing on strategic partnerships and new material development [5]