光大期货0128热点追踪：能化系集体反弹，沥青大涨4%

Core Viewpoint - The domestic energy and chemical sector showed strong performance, with asphalt prices rising over 4% due to disruptions caused by severe winter weather in the U.S. affecting Gulf Coast refineries and domestic production [3][7]. Supply Side - Severe winter storms have led to a significant reduction in U.S. oil production, with Gulf Coast crude oil exports dropping to zero last weekend [3][7]. - Chevron's Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is expected to recover to less than half of its production capacity by February 7, with further recovery remaining uncertain [3][7]. - OPEC+ is scheduled to meet this weekend to assess production policies for the upcoming month, with expectations to maintain current production levels [3][7]. Demand Side - February refinery output is expected to see a slight decrease, with some local refineries temporarily halting production, tightening supply [3][7]. - The demand side is facing challenges due to the off-season and widespread cold weather, which is hindering end-user demand, leading to weak actual transactions focused primarily on inventory needs [3][7]. - There are ongoing market expectations regarding potential shortages of raw materials for local refineries in the coming months, although the impact on recent market performance has diminished [3][7]. Market Outlook - In the context of supply contraction expectations, oil prices are showing a tendency to fluctuate positively [3][7]. - Short-term attention should be given to the impact of the U.S. cold wave on supply, as continued price rebounds could sustain upward pressure on asphalt costs [3][7]. - In light of weak demand realities, monitoring the speed of inventory accumulation is crucial [3][7].