智通财经网·2026-01-28 08:30Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic outlook on AIA Group (01299) and raises its target price by 16% from HKD 96 to HKD 111, while keeping an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Business Performance - AIA's new business value is expected to grow strongly in 2025, projected to increase by 17% at constant exchange rates, laying a solid foundation for 2026 [1] - The total new business value for AIA in 2025 is anticipated to reach USD 5.58 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase when adjusted for actual exchange rates (AER), driven by robust growth in Hong Kong, Thailand, and Singapore markets, with increases of 28%, 19%, and 19% respectively [1] - Despite a slight normalization in growth to 13% in the fourth quarter, the overall performance remains robust [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a 13% and 18% per share growth in operating profit and embedded value, respectively, for the year [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecasts for AIA's new business value growth for 2026 and 2027 to 16% and 15%, respectively, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term profitability [1] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - AIA plans to repurchase USD 2.3 billion in shares and distribute USD 2.7 billion in dividends in 2025, with an expected total shareholder return rate exceeding 4% [1] - The company may announce a new round of share buyback plans during the release of its annual results in March this year, further enhancing shareholder value [1]