长江有色：28日锌价大涨 现货成交企稳上行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc market has experienced a significant price increase, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 25,605 CNY/ton, an increase of 605 CNY, or 2.42% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2603 contract was 284,342 lots, an increase of 28,668 lots, while open interest decreased by 747 lots to 118,199 lots [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,404.5 USD, up by 46 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price reported a range of 25,190-25,290 CNY/ton for 0 zinc, with an average of 25,240 CNY, reflecting an increase of 480 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 25,000 to 25,300 CNY/ton, averaging 25,150 CNY, also up by 500 CNY [1]. - The current spot zinc market prices for 0 zinc are between 25,180 and 25,290 CNY/ton, while 1 zinc is between 25,110 and 25,210 CNY/ton [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic zinc market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate at low levels, impacting production profitability [3]. - The processing fees for mainstream domestic zinc concentrate are currently between 1,100 and 1,500 CNY per metal ton [3]. - Despite weak demand due to the upcoming Spring Festival, the social inventory of refined zinc has seen a slight increase, with a total of 109,900 tons reported, which is a minor increase of 1,300 tons since January 22 [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have led to increased volatility in the metals market, while a weaker dollar has positively impacted the valuation of dollar-denominated metals [4]. - The production from smelters is expected to align with forecasts, and while processing fees are low, high zinc prices are maintaining production willingness [4]. - Short-term zinc prices are anticipated to remain strong, with key factors to monitor including smelter production arrangements before the Spring Festival and changes in downstream stocking behavior [4].