兴证策略张启尧团队：近期涨价链的三条线索

Core Insights - The recent price increase chain has become a significant clue in the capital market, with notable stock price increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, building materials, and semiconductors [1][13]. Price Increase Trends - The richness of price increase clues this year is at a historically high level, with the proportion of price increases among 321 tracked subcategories being second only to the supply-side reform period in 2017 and the inflation surge in 2021 [2][15]. - Recent high-frequency price data indicates that the price increase chain is primarily concentrated in non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, and storage, showing deep transmission and linkage characteristics throughout the industrial chain [4][17]. Key Price Increase Drivers - Geopolitical risk and concerns over U.S. dollar credit are driving the price increases in non-ferrous metals, including silver and gold, which are transmitting costs to semiconductor manufacturing and testing sectors [4][17]. - Supply-side disturbances and tightening geopolitical situations are pushing oil prices up, leading to cost transmission throughout the entire industrial chain, affecting petrochemical raw materials and downstream products [7][17]. - Strong demand from AI is spreading the price increase wave, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix planning significant price hikes for memory used in iPhones, while domestic semiconductor companies are also raising prices due to rising costs [7][18]. Seasonal Outlook - The first quarter is typically a favorable time for price increases, and further clues for price hikes are expected to emerge as the spring construction season begins and policies are implemented after the March Two Sessions [6][22]. - Historical data suggests that the first quarter is a critical verification window for whether the Producer Price Index (PPI) can stabilize and rise [9][22].