Core Viewpoint - By the end of 2025, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to surpass the 7 mark and continue to rise, driven by three key factors: a potential record high in China's current account balance, recent government measures to boost the economy, and the weakness of the USD [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The current account balance of China is projected to reach a historical high by 2025 [1] - Recent government initiatives aimed at stimulating the economy are contributing to the positive outlook for the RMB [1] - The depreciation of the USD is favorable for the RMB exchange rate [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Long-term factors such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect do not support a significant appreciation of the RMB [1] - There is considerable uncertainty regarding domestic demand growth in 2026, with external demand remaining crucial for China's economic growth [1] - Geopolitical changes may negatively impact China's external demand, which is a concern for future economic performance [1] Group 3: Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB is not expected to appreciate significantly in 2026, with the central bank aiming to maintain the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1]
京东首席经济学家沈建光：2026年人民币不该也不会大幅升值
Ge Long Hui A P P·2026-01-28 11:03