结汇需求与弱美元共振，人民币中间价“破7”后如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The market generally believes that the RMB exchange rate will not exhibit a unilateral appreciation trend, despite recent strengthening against the USD [4][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 28, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 6.9755, a significant increase of 103 basis points from the previous trading day, continuing the appreciation trend after breaching the 7.0 mark [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a notable increase of 90 basis points on January 23, marking the largest single-day appreciation since August 25, 2025 [2]. - The onshore and offshore RMB rates began appreciating at the end of 2025, with both markets continuing to show slight appreciation around the 6.9 range in 2026 [2]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is driven by a combination of international market conditions and domestic supply-demand dynamics [2]. - A "weak dollar" environment has provided significant external support for RMB appreciation, with the dollar index declining from 100.22 to 97.51 since late November 2025, a drop of approximately 2.7% [2]. - Domestically, a surge in seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand has been a core driver of the RMB's strength, with settlement demand in late 2025 significantly exceeding historical seasonal levels [2][3]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent RMB appreciation has been fueled by high market sentiment, with accumulated settlement demand from previous high export growth potentially accelerating [3]. - Analysts predict that while the RMB may continue to show strength in the short term, it is unlikely to maintain a unilateral appreciation trend throughout the year [4][6]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to exhibit two-way fluctuations and maintain elasticity, aiming to prevent rapid appreciation or unilateral trends [5]. Long-term Projections - Analysts from Galaxy Securities expect the RMB to appreciate steadily rather than sharply, with seasonal settlement demand typically weakening in February and March [5]. - The RMB exchange rate will largely depend on three factors: the dollar's performance, the intensity of central parity regulation, and the effects of domestic export and growth policies [5][6]. - There is a potential for depreciation pressure on the RMB in 2026, influenced by a stabilization of the dollar index and the impact of high tariffs on global trade and exports [6].