克而瑞地产研究：1月土地成交规模迎来季节性回落 供求规模环比显著下降

Core Viewpoint - The land transaction scale in January 2026 is experiencing a seasonal decline, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year decreases in both transaction area and value, indicating a continued implementation of the "control increment" policy by local authorities [1][2][9]. Supply and Demand - As of January 25, 2026, the land supply area is 33.6 million square meters, reflecting a 50% month-on-month decrease and an 8% year-on-year decrease, consistent with seasonal trends [2]. - The average land supply floor area ratio in monitored cities is 1.96, with high-quality low-density residential land being the main supply type [2]. Market Activity - The total area of land transactions nationwide is 25.8 million square meters, with a 90% month-on-month decline and a 48% year-on-year decline; the total transaction value is 62.2 billion yuan, also down 90% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year [9]. - The average floor price across all cities is 1,821 yuan per square meter, down 5% month-on-month, influenced by a decrease in high-tier city transactions [9]. Market Heat - The average premium rate for land transactions in January is 1.8%, continuing its low trend, with all high-value land parcels above 1 billion yuan being sold at base prices [12][17]. - The land auction failure rate is 7%, remaining at a low level, with notable failures in cities like Shijiazhuang and Hefei due to uncertain future sales prospects [14]. Key Land Parcels - In first-tier cities, notable land parcels include a high-value site in Guangzhou with a base price of 18.64 billion yuan, featuring strict additional conditions for development [3]. - In second-tier cities, the highest base price is from a site in Hangzhou at 2.134 billion yuan, with a floor price of 30,000 yuan per square meter [4]. - In third-tier cities, a noteworthy low-density residential site in Jinhua has a floor area ratio of only 1.09, with a starting price of 414 million yuan [4]. Policy and Regulation - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have issued measures to support urban renewal, emphasizing the efficient use of existing land resources and aligning land supply with high-quality urban development [5].