比俄乌冲突时期更差 俄罗斯汽车市场销售额10年来首降

Group 1: Market Overview - The total transaction scale of the Russian new and used car market in 2025 is projected to be 13.8 trillion rubles, a decrease of 7.8% compared to 2024, marking the first negative growth since 2015 [1] - The new car market in Russia is expected to generate sales of 4.6 trillion rubles in 2025, down 18.4% year-on-year, while the used car market is projected to reach 9.2 trillion rubles, a decline of 1.4% [1] - The sales volume of new passenger cars in Russia is anticipated to be 1.326 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year drop of 15.6% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Decline - The decline in the Russian automotive market is attributed to high benchmark interest rates from the central bank, which have increased car loan costs, and weak market demand [1] - Policy changes, such as the increase in vehicle scrappage tax, have also negatively impacted consumer purchasing behavior [1] - The market experienced a significant drop in 2022 due to the Ukraine conflict, with new car sales falling below 1 million units, a decrease of 58.8% [1] Group 3: Chinese Brands in the Russian Market - Chinese automotive brands saw a decline in market share in Russia, with new car sales expected to be 685,000 units in 2025, down 25% year-on-year, reducing their market share from 58.5% in 2024 to 51.7% [2] - Before the Ukraine conflict, European car manufacturers dominated the Russian market, but after 2023, local manufacturers increased their market share to 40% due to the exit of Western companies [2] - Chinese brands rapidly increased their market presence, growing from around 5% market share in early 2021 to over 50% by 2023 [2] Group 4: Challenges for Chinese Brands - The tightening of export policies from Russia has led to a decline in Chinese car exports, with rising tariffs and loan interest rates contributing to decreased consumer demand [3] - A significant increase in the scrappage tax, which rose by 70% to 85% in October 2024, is expected to further impact the cost of imported vehicles [3] - The number of Chinese brand showrooms in Russia is projected to decrease, with 643 showrooms expected to close by the end of 2025, reflecting market saturation and increased price competition [4] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Among the top ten passenger car brands in Russia for 2025, five are Chinese, but most are experiencing significant sales declines, with Haval's sales down 9.1% and others like Chery and Geely down over 36% [4] - The influx of dealers has led to market saturation, resulting in lower profit margins for new cars and increased price competition due to model homogeneity [4] - The overall enthusiasm for Chinese cars in the Russian market is waning after years of rapid growth, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [5]