ETF日报：今年或迎来大宗商品超级周期，或有部分资金会选择高低切，流向石油等板块，关注石油ETF

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. However, the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index fell by 0.57% and 0.47%, respectively. The total market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][15] - The overall market sentiment is neutral to weak, with over 3600 stocks declining. Small-cap stocks showed mixed performance, with micro-cap stocks underperforming, while growth stocks slightly outperformed value stocks [1][15] Gold and Precious Metals - Spot gold prices surged past the $5200 per ounce mark, leading to significant gains in gold stocks and the non-ferrous metals sector. The Gold Stock ETF rose by 10.00%, the Mining ETF increased by 7.38%, and the Non-Ferrous 60 ETF climbed by 7.37% [1][2][15] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to its safe-haven appeal and a renewed "sell America" trading logic, as market confidence in U.S. assets wavers amid a potential interest rate cut cycle and geopolitical tensions [2][16] Commodity Market Trends - The current rise in precious metals and non-ferrous prices reflects the ongoing realization of core market logic, with clear long-term drivers for gold and silver. However, there are signs of potential acceleration towards a peak in this price wave [3][17] - A super cycle for commodities is anticipated this year, supported by a rebound in real estate and infrastructure investments in China, as well as expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S. during the midterm election year [4][18] Coal and Energy Sector - The Coal ETF saw a significant increase of 4.75%, driven by market sentiment towards resource commodities. The current price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao and Shanxi has stabilized at 685 yuan per ton [6][20] - The oil sector also experienced gains, with the Oil ETF rising by 4.42%. Brent crude oil prices rebounded from around $60 to above $65, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and supply disruptions [7][22] Investment Opportunities - The coal industry shows strong valuation and dividend potential, with a price-to-book ratio of only 1.59 and a dividend yield of 5.82%, making it attractive in the current low-interest-rate environment [21] - Investors are encouraged to consider the largest Oil ETF, which has a scale of 1.021 billion yuan, as it continues to attract capital inflows [8][23]