智通财经网·2026-01-28 13:15Core Viewpoint - Investors are concerned about the return on massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) as Microsoft and Meta Platforms prepare to release their earnings reports, which may provide insights into the profitability of such expenditures [1][4]. Group 1: Company Earnings and Market Reactions - Microsoft and Meta are among the top four companies in the U.S. for AI spending, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately $505 billion in 2026, up from an estimated $366 billion in 2025 [1]. - Since the last earnings report on October 29, 2022, Microsoft's stock has dropped by 11%, while Meta's stock has decreased by about 10%, contrasting with a 1.3% increase in the S&P 500 index during the same period [1]. - Investors are closely monitoring the return on investment for these expenditures, with Jonathan Kofsky from Janus Henderson emphasizing that quarterly evaluations will be critical [1][4]. Group 2: AI Spending and Market Implications - Any indication that Microsoft and Meta plan to invest more than expected in AI could pressure their stock prices, while benefiting companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron that stand to gain from such spending [4]. - Seagate has reported strong demand for high-capacity hard drives, which is expected to continue at least until 2027, positively impacting the stock prices of related companies [4]. - Kofsky noted that investor expectations are that results will often meet or exceed the upper limits of projections, particularly for AI infrastructure companies like Nvidia and TSMC [4]. Group 3: Microsoft and Meta's Specific Challenges - For Microsoft, the focus will be on its Azure cloud computing business, which is experiencing strong demand for AI service development and operation [5]. - Azure's revenue is expected to grow by 38% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a 39% increase in the first quarter [5]. - Investors are also interested in the progress of Microsoft's Copilot product, which is a key AI software tool for office workers, although details on its contribution to overall sales growth remain limited [5]. Group 4: Meta's Growth Pressure - Unlike Microsoft, Meta lacks a cloud computing business and relies on AI to enhance advertising targeting and user engagement on its social media platforms [6]. - Meta faces significant pressure to demonstrate how its AI spending translates into growth, especially after a previous drop in stock price following its commitment to increased capital expenditures without clear return timelines [6]. - Market expectations for Meta's fourth-quarter revenue are optimistic, projecting a 21% increase to $58.4 billion, with earnings per share expected to rise by 2.1% to $8.19 [5].