加元技术性反弹难改震荡格局 静待央行政策指引

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the USD/CAD is primarily a technical correction and profit-taking behavior ahead of the Canadian and Federal Reserve's policy decisions, rather than a signal of a trend reversal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain interest rates, although recent economic data has shown divergence and trade uncertainties persist [3]. - There is an increasing expectation for a potential rate cut by the BoC, influenced by rising oil prices that support the Canadian dollar, which limits the upside potential for USD/CAD [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be a key variable for the short-term direction of the USD, with investors focusing on the Fed's guidance regarding future rate cuts [3][4]. - The USD index has recently rebounded from multi-year lows, but the market still expects future rate cuts from the Fed, which limits the upward momentum of the dollar [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the low-level rebound of USD/CAD is characterized by short-term profit-taking and correction, with prices stabilizing near mid-term moving averages [2][4]. - Key support levels are identified at recent lows and moving average convergence areas, while resistance is focused on key psychological levels and previous high-density areas [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD is currently in a low-level consolidation and range rebound pattern, with trend confirmation dependent on volume expansion and subsequent buying activity before the central bank policy outcomes are clear [4][5].