4 Energy Stocks Are Poised for a Strong Q4 Earnings Beat

Core Insights - The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season is underway, with a focus on the oil and energy sector facing macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [1] - A few energy companies are positioned to exceed earnings expectations, potentially leading to stock price boosts and investment opportunities [1] Oil and Gas Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices averaged $59.64 per barrel in Q4 2025, down from $70.69 the previous year, due to global oversupply and sluggish demand growth [3] - OPEC+ nations began unwinding production cuts in September, increasing output alongside steady non-OPEC supply, resulting in inventory builds of up to 2 million barrels per day [3] - Natural gas prices at Henry Hub averaged $3.75 per million British thermal units, up from $2.44 the previous year, driven by colder winter weather, high LNG exports, and increased consumption from data centers [5] Identifying Potential Market Beaters - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have a 70% chance of beating earnings expectations [7] - Earnings ESP is a proprietary tool that measures the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate [7] Company Highlights - Imperial Oil Limited (IMO): Expected to report earnings of $1.40 per share, a 17.16% decrease from the prior year, but has a 1.79% Earnings ESP and a strong track record of exceeding estimates [10] - ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM): Anticipated to post earnings of $1.64 per share, down 1.8% year over year, with a 2.29% Earnings ESP and a history of 5.71% average earnings surprises [12] - Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN): Set to report earnings of 12 cents per share, flat year over year, with a notable 19.15% Earnings ESP and an average surprise of 17.5% [13] - Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP): Expected to report earnings of 51 cents per share, a 15% drop from the prior year, but with a 14.85% Earnings ESP and a history of positive earnings surprises [14]