LyondellBasell to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 30, 2026, with anticipated challenges due to seasonality, reduced operating rates, and increased feedstock costs [1][7]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LYB's fourth-quarter consolidated revenues is $6,984.4 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 26.5% [4]. - For the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas division, the revenue estimate is $2,536 million, reflecting a 7.9% decrease year-over-year [4]. - The Olefins and Polyolefins – Europe, Asia & International division is estimated at $2,378 million, suggesting a 3.8% decline from the previous year [4]. - The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment is expected to generate $837 million in revenue, representing a 1.5% increase year-over-year [5]. - The Intermediaries and Derivatives segment's revenue estimate is $2,203 million, indicating a 6.5% decrease from last year [8]. - The Technology segment's revenue is pegged at $137 million, reflecting a 21.3% decline year-over-year [8]. Factors Impacting Performance - Lower operating rates and seasonal factors are anticipated to negatively affect volumes and margins, with North American olefins and polyolefins assets expected to operate at 80% capacity, European facilities at 60%, and Intermediates & Derivatives assets at 75% [9]. - The company plans to idle one of its PO/SM units in Channelview and one of its crackers in Germany, which is likely to impact production volumes and margins [10]. - Year-end seasonality, reduced demand, and customer inventory reductions are expected to weigh on volumes in the Olefins and Polyolefins – Americas unit, with weak industrial and consumer demand in Europe [10]. - Higher natural gas and feedstock costs are likely to exert pressure on margins in both North America and Europe [11]. - The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment is facing challenges due to lower demand in the automotive sector, which is expected to continue affecting this segment [12]. Earnings Prediction - The model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for LyondellBasell this quarter, as the combination of a positive Earnings ESP of +1.85% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) does not support an earnings beat [13][14].