The beginning of the end: Eliquis sales forecast to plummet as EU patent expiry nears

Core Insights - Sales of Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMS) and Pfizer's drug Eliquis (apixaban) are projected to decline by 15.2% due to the loss of European market exclusivity on May 19, 2026, marking the beginning of a significant patent cliff [1] - Eliquis has generated approximately $82.6 billion in revenue since its launch in 2011, dominating the anticoagulant market [1] - The compound annual growth rate of Eliquis' global sales has been 108.3% since its introduction, with a peak forecasted at just under $14.2 billion in 2025, followed by a predicted 92.3% decline by 2030 compared to 2025 [3] Market Dynamics - Eliquis entered the European market in May 2011 and has revolutionized thromboprophylaxis by preventing clot formation through direct and reversible inhibition of factor Xa, distinguishing it from traditional anticoagulants [2] - The drug's higher safety profile and reduced monitoring needs have led to its adoption as a first-line treatment for various cardiovascular diseases [2] Revenue and Patent Strategy - BMS and Pfizer have attempted to extend Eliquis' market exclusivity through a supplementary protection certificate (SPC) filing, generating approximately $29.5 billion in additional revenue and delaying the patent cliff [3] - With US patent expiry expected in 2028, BMS and Pfizer are launching a direct-to-patient Eliquis option in July 2025, offering over 40% reduction for prescriptions to underinsured, uninsured, or self-pay patients [5] - This program aims to mitigate competition and expand market access, targeting cash-paying patients who make up to 10% of the patient population [5]