德国下调今明两年经济增长预期，因贸易不确定性和改革推进缓慢

Core Insights - Germany has revised down its economic growth forecasts for the next two years due to increased global trade uncertainties and the slow implementation of economic and fiscal policy measures [1][4] - The government has lowered the 2026 growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.0%, while the 2027 GDP growth rate is now expected to be 1.3%, down from a previous estimate of 1.4% [1][4] - Despite these adjustments, the new forecasts remain significantly higher than the 0.2% growth recorded in 2025, following two consecutive years of economic contraction [1][4] Economic Stimulus Impact - A landmark €500 billion (approximately $600 billion) infrastructure fund was approved by the German parliament in March, but only €24 billion has been invested by the end of the year, indicating slow decision-making within the federal system [1][4] - Fiscal policy measures are expected to contribute approximately two-thirds of a percentage point to GDP growth by 2026 [5] Consumer and Export Outlook - Private consumption is projected to grow by only 0.8% in 2026, down from 1.4% in 2025, assuming a stable savings rate of about 10.5% of household income [6] - After three years of decline, exports are expected to increase by 0.8% [3][7] - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff increases from last year continue to exert pressure on the global economy, and weakened demand from key non-European export markets may further reduce Germany's global market share [6]